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MI

MICROVISION, INC. (MVIS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $0.59M, down 38% YoY, with gross profit turning positive to $0.04M; GAAP net loss was $28.8M ($-0.12 EPS) and adjusted EBITDA improved to a $10.7M loss .
  • The quarter missed Wall Street consensus: revenue $0.59M vs $2.25M*, and EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.065*; management attributed slower ramp to customer deployment pacing and broader automotive LiDAR delays, while emphasizing industrial and defense verticals for nearer-term revenue .
  • Operating expenses fell 47% YoY to $14.1M; cash used in operations declined to $14.1M; cash and equivalents ended at $69.0M; runway extended into 2026, supported by ATM capacity and remaining convert commitment .
  • Management reiterated line-of-sight to $30–$50M revenue over the next 12–18 months, primarily from industrial customers; production commitment with ZF supports high-volume deliveries, with possible capacity expansion if demand approaches the upper bound .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Cost discipline: Total operating expenses declined 47% YoY to $14.1M, reflecting 2024 streamlining; adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $10.7M from $18.7M YoY .
    • Balance sheet flexibility: Ended Q1 with $69.0M cash and equivalents, plus ~$143.4M accessible through ATM and convertible facilities; runway extended into 2026 .
    • Strategic focus: Management reinforced near-term industrial and defense monetization; quote: “We believe we have line of sight to $30 million to $50 million in revenue over the next 12 to 18 months” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue shortfall vs estimates: $0.59M vs $2.25M*, driven by industrial deployments pacing and continued automotive program delays; management noted slow OEM decision cycles and tariff-driven reformulations .
    • Automotive timing: Seven RFQs remain active, but management does not expect substantial production awards near term; Level 3 programs require pre-development, with model-year 2028 still feasible but dependent on OEM speed .
    • Heavy non-cash charges: Net loss included $16.9M in non-cash items (debt extinguishment, unrealized gains, non-cash interest, stock comp), complicating EPS optics despite operational improvements .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.19 $1.65 $0.59
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$-0.39 $-2.47 $0.04
Gross Profit Margin %-206.8% -149.5% 6.6%
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$15.31 $16.01 $14.08
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$-15.71 $-18.47 $-14.04
Net Income - (IS) ($USD Millions)$-15.52 $-31.16 $-28.78
Diluted EPS ($USD)$-0.07 $-0.14 $-0.12
Cash used in operations ($USD Millions)$14.10 $15.00 $14.10
Cash And Equivalents ($USD Millions)$43.2 $74.7 $69.0
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$-11.7 $-13.23 $-10.71

Estimates vs Actuals (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.25*$0.589
Primary EPS ($USD)$-0.065*$-0.12
Revenue - # of Estimates2*—
Primary EPS - # of Estimates2*—

Note: Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Weighted-average shares (Millions)213.00 219.48 235.93
Inventory ($USD Millions)$4.49 $2.29 $2.53
Total Liabilities ($USD Millions)$22.41 $72.39 $63.54
Total Equity ($USD Millions)$65.86 $48.77 $53.20

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue potential (industrial)Next 12–18 months$30–$50M (Q4 2024) $30–$50M (Q1 2025) Maintained
R&D + SG&A cash run-rateFY 2025$48–$50M (annual) Sustained at ~$11M per quarter cash R&D/SG&A (implies ~$44M) Slightly lower cadence; maintained discipline
Production capacity2025Secured production commitment with ZF Commitment with ZF; may add a second MOVIA L site later in 2025 if demand triggers Maintained, optional expansion
Cash runwayThrough 2026Extended into 2026 Extended into 2026 Maintained
Formal FY 2025 guidanceFY 2025None provided None provided; directional commentary only Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Previous)Q4 2024 (Previous)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Industrial monetizationEarly sales and NRE shifting into Q4; ASPs and unit TAM discussed $1.7M revenue driven by industrial; delay pushed revenue to 2025 Revenue driven by industrial; line-of-sight $30–$50M over 12–18 months Building pipeline; deployments pacing customer rollouts
Automotive RFQs7 RFQs; OEM timelines elongating 7 RFQs; reformulation of L2+/L3 strategies; lidar required but timing uncertain 7 RFQs; pre-development likely; MY 2028 feasible if OEMs move quickly Slow near-term; pre-dev bridges to production
Tariffs/macroNoted macro pressures emerging OEMs reformulating RFQs amid tariff pressures Minimal China exposure via France-based ZF; continued monitoring Positioning benefits cost/availability
Defense verticalIntroduced as expansion area Strategy forming; advisory board planned Defense advisory board established; prototypes in 6–9 months; ED&T revenue path Increasing focus; early-stage monetization
Production capacityQualified automotive PPAP line capacity ~45k units/year Production commitment secured with ZF Potential 2nd site in 2025 based on triggers; expansion implies upper end of range Readied for industrial ramp
AR/IP portfolioLegacy AR assets referenced AR discussed as strategic IP Considering monetization/licensing; defense-adjacent use cases Optionality growing

Management Commentary

  • “We believe we have line of sight to $30 million to $50 million in revenue over the next 12 to 18 months” .
  • “With our partnership with ZF, we have no exposure to China tariffs and remain cost competitive… Based on certain triggers, we are planning to bring up another site for MOVIA L production later this year” .
  • “We remain engaged in 7 RFQs for automotive programs… I do not expect any substantial projects to be awarded with material production revenues in the near future” .
  • “With the capital raise in the first quarter and a streamlined cash burn, our cash runway has extended into 2026” .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… was a $10.7 million loss, compared to a $18.7 million loss for the first quarter of 2024” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pace and scale of industrial revenue: Deployments tied to end-customer rollout across AGV/AMR fleets; engagements “more than one, less than 10” customers; expansion of capacity would imply reaching the upper bound of $50M .
  • Defense monetization: Early-stage focus on ED&T (NRE-equivalent) via primes; prototypes in 6–9 months; potential IP monetization and co-development/licensing paths .
  • Automotive path: Pre-development contracts likely precursor; MY 2028 still feasible if OEMs settle solutions within next ~3 months; lidar remains required for L3 .
  • Competitive positioning: Emphasis on solid-state LiDAR plus onboard perception as bolt-on solution with lower system cost; multi-modal sensor fusion roadmap .
  • Capital structure optics: Discussion on additional authorized shares to signal capacity and durability to large contracts; alignment with institutional partner .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 results missed consensus on both revenue and EPS: Revenue $0.589M vs $2.25M* and EPS $-0.12 vs $-0.065*. Management cited customer deployment pacing in industrial and elongated automotive OEM decision cycles, while maintaining near-term industrial revenue visibility .
  • Revisions likely: Street models should reflect slower revenue recognition cadence from industrial customers and continued non-cash financing charges, while incorporating cost discipline and extended runway into 2026 .

Note: Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term revenue will be driven by industrial AGV/AMR and related non-safety applications; deployment pacing and customer rollouts are the critical drivers for quarterly variability .
  • Automotive remains strategic but slower: expect pre-development activity rather than production awards in the near term; MY 2028 visibility remains contingent on OEM timing .
  • Cost execution is credible: 47% YoY OpEx reduction and improving adjusted EBITDA indicate operational progress despite revenue choppiness .
  • Balance sheet provides capacity to execute: $69.0M cash and equivalents plus accessible capital and ZF commitment support industrial scale-up; runway into 2026 reduces funding risk .
  • Watch for capacity expansion triggers: A second MOVIA L site later in 2025 would signal demand trending toward the upper end of the $30–$50M range .
  • Defense is an upside option: ED&T revenue and potential IP monetization/licensing could add incremental revenue as prototypes emerge in 6–9 months .
  • Trading implications: Expect stock sensitivity to industrial deal announcements/backlogs, capacity expansion signals, and any pre-development wins with OEMs; misses vs consensus emphasize importance of monitoring quarterly deployment cadence and non-cash financing impacts .